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Nov 30 2012
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“… a disservice to the league and our fans.”

“I have concluded that the Spurs did a disservice to the league and our fans.”

That was David Stern, Commissioner of the National Basketball Association, explaining his decision to fine the San Antonio Spurs $250,000 due to Head Coach Gregg Popovich’s decision to send his three best players and one key role player home prior to the San Antonio Spurs’ game against the defending champion Miami Heat. A decision which makes perfect sense, in light of the fact that the league is supposed to govern what basketball decisions a team makes and there is a clear rule in place to explain what violation the San Antonio Spurs committed which they would have been aware of well in advance of Coach Popovich’s decision.

Wait, I’m sorry, I’m being told that isn’t what happened at all. Apparently NBA teams are supposed to be mostly autonomous and there’s absolutely no precedent for Stern’s decision. Furthermore, absolutely no rules were violated.

What’s truly hialrious about this entire ridiculous situation is that Stern announced the Spurs would face “substantial sanctions” before the game even started. Anyone who has been following any sport for any length of time could probably guess exactly what happened next. The Spurs nearly blew the Miami Heat out of their own building. The defending champions needed a clutch three-pointer by Ray Allen to take the lead with 22 seconds remaining, and free throws on their next possession to secure the 105-100 win.

So, let’s review. The Spurs are being fined for (and I cannot overstate this) breaking no existing rule in order to do what they determined was best for their team. Okay. So, Stern’s justification is that they failed to inform their opponents, the league, and the media (and make no mistake: that last one is the one he really cares about) of this decision. Obviously as a result, the fans were cheated out of a very entertaining game, and the league’s revenue suffered seriously due to the–

No, wait, sorry. Wrong again. The game was really damn entertaining, and so many people who were watching it Tweeted like crazy about it and spurred (no pun intended) other people into watching it that it might end up being one of the highest rated regular season games this year!

Ultimately, I am forced to agree with Commissioner Stern. A serious disservice was done to the league and its fans. But it was not done by Gregg Popovich, Head Coach of the San Antonio Spurs. It was done by David Stern, Commissioner of the National Basketball Association.

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Oct 30 2012
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2012-13 NBA Predictions

Eastern Conference Playoffs
Miami (Southeast Champions)
Boston (Atlantic Champions)
Chicago (Central Champions)
Indiana
Brooklyn
Philadelphia
New York
Milwaukee
One possible controversy here is that I have Chicago retaining the Central Championship despite the absence of Derek Rose and all the love Indiana is getting. Keep in mind that this won’t exactly be the first time Chicago has been without their superstar for an extended period of time, and it’s never stopped them before.

Western Conference Playoffs
San Antonio (Southwest)
LA Lakers (Pacific)
Oklahoma City (Northwest)
Denver
LA Clippers
Houston
Dallas
Minnesota
Kobe’s injury is a serious concern (and why I have the Spurs finishing with the best record), but Los Angeles just built the only team that can actually compete with Miami.

NBA Finals
Miami over Los Angeles in 7 Games

Awards
MVP: LeBron James, Miami
ROY: Anthony Davis, New Orleans
COY: Tom Thibodeau, Chicago
DPOY: Dwight Howard, LA Lakers
OPOY: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
6MAN: Jason Terry, Boston
MIP: Raymond Felton, New York

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Jul 02 2012
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Other NBA Fans Genuinely Confuse Me

I see a future where Dwight Howard suits up for the Brooklyn Nets alongside Deron Williams and Joe Johnson. (Okay, I didn’t see Joe Johnson there until today. That one caught me completely by surprise.) And I see them hated throughout the league as the second coming of the Miami Heat. I am beginning to see a pattern emerge. Superstar players are using whatever leverage they have to go to the teams they want to play for. And fans are outraged.

I have a serious question: why?

The Miami Heat are hardly the first “super team” the NBA has ever assembled. How about the Boston Celtics’ “Big Three” (Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parish)? Or the later version from those same Celtics (Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen)? How about the San Antonio Spurs of the 2000s? The Los Angeles Lakers of the 1980s and 2000s? The Chicago Bulls of the 1990s?

All of these teams assembled some of the greatest players of their generation on one team. Do you know the difference? (The real difference, not the one hour television special that A) has nothing to do with the Nets, and B) everyone really needs to learn to get over.) These teams were assembled by their owners and general managers, with the players having little or no leverage.

What confuses me is that if you listen to people talk, they seem to have a moral problem with players having the power to play where they want to play, or with whom they want to play. I really don’t get that. If you want to tell me these players are overpaid, that’s fine, but you’re telling me the NBA owners aren’t? You’re offended by millionaires having more leverage to decide what team they play for, because it’s somehow much more morally correct for billionaires to have that control?

I don’t follow the logic. I really don’t. What makes these players so evil for wanting to play where they want to play and with whom they want to play?  Someone help me out here. What am I missing?

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Jun 22 2012
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We Were All Witnesses

LeBron James might be the most polarizing athlete alive.

Think about that for a moment. Kobe Bryant and Ben Roethlisberger (two of the highest profile athletes in their respective sports) have been accused of sexual assault. Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds used performance enhancing drugs. Michael Vick ran an illegal dogfighting ring. These are just some of the most high profile examples of athletes with huge public relations nightmares.

LeBron James exercised his right as a free agent to sign a contract with a new team and did so in a manner that was an example of pretty poorly conceived public relations.

That’s it. That’s really what all of this is about. Really. No laws were broken. No NBA rules were broken. No one cheated. No one was harmed.  The competitive integrity of the game wasn’t jeopardized (unless you were a pundit who desperately needed to fill a few minutes.) No one did anything wrong.

Let me repeat that: no one did anything wrong.

Was what LeBron James did a bad idea? If you mean signing with the Miami Heat, absolutely not. I would’ve done the same thing in a heartbeat. If you mean doing it the way he did it, with that one-hour-long announcement on national television, well, do I really need to answer that? Of course it was a bad idea. It was such a bad idea that, when I heard he was having a live special on ESPN, I thought, “Well, he’s definitely going back to Cleveland.” The idea that anyone would go on national television to announce they were leaving one of the longest-suffering fanbases in the country was inconceivable.

Then the backlash started. Jerseys were burned. Death threats were mailed. (Really.)

My reaction was predictable. I started rooting for them. When someone is met with an enormous amount of hostility for transparently stupid reasons, I’m going to tend to end up in their corner. When you’re sending someone death threats because of the game of basketball,  something very serious has gone wrong.

The thing is, basketball doesn’t happen in a vacuum. In the same season, Derrick Rose (more or less confirmed to be motivated by James and Wade spurning Chicago) exploded into one of the best players in the NBA, winning the league MVP Award. On missing out on LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, the Bulls General Manager remarked that they had missed out on two Top 5 players, but they had gained one with Rose’s sudden rise.

Not only that, Rose was a clear contrast to James. He let his game do his talking for him, he shied away from the limelight (actually admitting that it made him uncomfortable), and (and this is the best part) he showed every indication that he was going to stay with his hometown team for a very, very long time. (Yes: his hometown is a big market city and has always surrounded him with an exceptional supporting cast… but I ignored that part. I’ll get into why later.) It was such a great narrative, it was such a clear example of good versus evil, I bought it hook, line, and sinker.

The final straw was what happened in the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals.

The Chicago Bulls blew the Miami Heat out of the building in Game 1, and gave us every reason to believe the entire series was going to look like that. They were just too deep. Miami’s bench wasn’t good enough. Miami was too one-dimensional. We were going to the Finals, and we were going to win. Chicago was back on top.

After that high, Miami swept the next four games in close contests. But the narrative of the series for Chicago fans became Dwayne Wade drawing an absurd amount of fouls and Derrick Rose not being able to buy a call despite being hacked to death. That’s how I’ll always remember the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals. I’m a Bulls fan. It’s how it is.

So, naturally, I did something that is ruinous to objectivity: I got angry.

I honestly don’t know how sportswriters do it. Sports have these allegiances, these narratives. It sucks you in. When I look back at what I said when LeBron James first went to the Heat and faced this outpouring of hate, I realize that I was right back then. My initial reaction was the right one. But when the team you root for gets involved, when emotions get involved, objectivity goes out the window if you’re not careful. How do you maintain interest and passion for sports and not have that happen? More and more, I’ve been appreciating the game itself rather than my own narrow rooting interests, I’ve been able to appreciate stories and performances by teams I had no allegiance to… but I couldn’t stop myself from getting sucked in by the anti-Heat hype.

The 2011 Eastern Conference Finals are when my dislike of the Miami Heat really matured. None of it directed at James, mind you. In casual conversations at work, on Twitter, on Facebook, and elsewhere, I would continue to point out that though the Decision was ill-conceived, Dwayne Wade is the one player on the Heat I truly can’t stand. LeBron James plays with integrity, isn’t afraid to yell at his teammates when they’re being idiots, and all around doesn’t seem like a giant toolbox.

I’ve never really disliked LeBron James. There. I said it.

The thing is… I’m a Bulls fan, and I’m surrounded by Celtics fans. I happen to like the Celtics quite a bit.  (A direct contrast to my opinion of other Boston teams.) I started taking it for granted that the Miami Heat were a team you just had to hate. Then this funny thing happened. Someone who doesn’t follow sports very much asked me what should be a really simple question.

“Why?”

When you’re defending an opinion that is, by its very nature, pretty irrational, “Why?” is a question that throws everything off-balance. You hate the Miami Heat because… they’re the Miami Heat! But as you try to explain why, you realize there’s really no way to say it without sounding silly. “Well, LeBron had this special on TV when he moved, and it was really painfully awkward, and they had this victory party when they didn’t really win anything…”

Oh. That… that doesn’t actually sound like a very big deal when you say it aloud. At this point, you kind of have the choice to either admit you’re being pretty irrational (this is a very difficult option to choose), get defensive, exaggerate so you sound less irrational, or weasel out.

I opted to weasel out. Then I watched the 2012 NBA Playoffs unfold. I knew what was going to happen: LeBron was going to fold. LeBron always folded when it mattered most. He folded against Boston in his final year with the Cavaliers. He folded against Dallas in his first year with the Heat.

He was on the ropes against Indiana, and he torched them when it mattered most. He was on the ropes against Boston, and he torched them when it mattered most. Twice. He was never really on the ropes against Oklahoma City, because he just kept torching them.

Every criticism anyone has ever had of LeBron James? Gone. That near-triple double he always averaged in the regular season and playoffs with the huge asterisk of “until it mattered”? He did it when it mattered. His seeming unwillingness to be the Alpha Dog on a team that included his best friend, Dwayne Wade, one of the few players almost a match for him? He finally decided “almost a match” wasn’t good enough, and took over. His infuriating tendency to turn into a perimeter player in the postseason instead of taking it to the basket? He started taking it to the basket.

He imposed his will on other teams. He played like he was the best player on the court (which he always has been) and knew it (which it really seems like he hasn’t always.)

He did everything we have ever asked, and more. And he put together the kind of complete performances that no one else in the NBA can match. Let me repeat that, because it’s very important: no one else currently in the NBA can do what LeBron James can do.

So here I am, un-weaseling out.

LeBron James might be the most polarizing athlete alive.

LeBron James is an NBA Champion, the reigning regular season Most Valuable Player (for the third time), and the reigning NBA Finals MVP. He is, without possibility of argument, the best active professional basketball player on the planet. If you can’t appreciate what he did in the 2012 NBA Playoffs and the 2012 NBA Finals, you are not a fan of basketball. You don’t have to like him, but you need to appreciate his performance.

We were all witnesses. Finally.

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Jun 03 2012
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Sports Video

20 years later, this is still the coolest thing ever. All I can do is laugh helplessly at how awesome it is.

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May 30 2012
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Bill Simmons explains the unexplainable

Perhaps it is fitting considering the popular opinion (which Simmons and I both disagree with loudly) that the Spurs are a “boring” team that wins a lot of games: this is not one of Bill Simmons’ greatest playoff game diaries, but it has some excellent moments and manages to articulate some things about this San Antonio Spurs team that are otherwise difficult to articulate. My favorite example from that article:

Here’s the thing: When you can get quality shots pretty much whenever you want, nothing else really matters. The Spurs, as presently constructed and in their present state of health, are unbeatable. In 10 playoff games, they’re averaging 104.1 points, making 49.4 percent of their shots, hitting 41 percent of their 3s and getting assists on 65 percent of their made baskets. They can survive a lousy offensive game from Parker (happened in Game 1), Ginobili or Duncan (happened in Game 2) without being affected in any way, as long as two of them aren’t struggling at once. They can play smallball; they can handle bigger teams; they can play fast or slow. They can handle absolutely anything.

They’ve won their 10 playoff games by an average of 12.5 points, a potentially historic pace; of the best teams ever, only the 1971 Bucks (+14.5) and 2011 Lakers (+12.8) topped that number, with famous juggernauts like the ’86 Celts (+10.6), ’96 Bulls (+10.6), ’87 Lakers (+11.4), ’83 Sixers (+5.9), ’91 Bulls (+11.7) and ’72 Lakers (+3.3) falling short of that mark. They’ve also won an astonishing 20 straight games dating back to the regular season; only three other teams have EVER won more than that (all regular-season streaks, too), and if they sweep Oklahoma City, that 22-game streak will tie the ’08 Rockets for the second-longest streak ever (even if the NBA won’t officially recognize it). Oh, and they’re only six wins away from being the first NBA team to sweep the NBA playoffs. Let’s be honest: This is insane.

He also tackles the idea that the Spurs are “boring”:

I gotta be honest … I don’t understand how anyone could say the Spurs are boring when they have two guards who (a) play beautifully together, (b) get better when it matters, and (c) consistently make some of the most incredibly unique baskets in the league. Three times per Spurs game, either Manu or Parker invents a shot or a drive that makes you say, “Wait, have I ever seen that before?” That’s boring?

(Just for fun, after you read his game diary, if you want to compare it to my live-tweeting of the  game, you might see that we noticed a few similar things, though he obviously expands on them quite a bit more.)

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May 28 2012
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Possible 2012 NBA Finals Matchups

On one of my old blogs, I had a tradition of breaking down the four possible Super Bowl matchups prior to the Conference Championship games. At a reader’s suggestion, I started doing the same for other sports. With the Conference Finals underway in the NBA, it’s time for the inaugural edition of this tradition on this blog!

1) Spurs vs. Celtics
Where Doing It Right Happens
It usually means something when the vast majority of casual fans want one series (hint: not this one), and People Who Know Things want a different one (hint: it’s this one.) Would a Thunder/Heat Finals put three of the best five players on the planet on the floor together? Yep. Would it be a ratings orgy? Definitely. Would it be the best basketball series available?

Nope. Not even close.

The Spurs are a very special basketball team. If you’re confused as to why I think that, Bill Simmons actually does a superb job of explaining it in the last section of this article. A Spurs/Celtics Finals would match up two teams that do things “the right way,” with an emphasis on the team, not on individual talent. Remember: the Celtics were a “Big 3″ super team before the Heat. But they acquired their super team through a pair of shrewd trades, without a self-created media circus. Their identity as a team? Ubuntu, the philosophy Doc Rivers has stressed since day one.

Sometimes there are complicated storylines leading up to the NBA Finals. Sometimes they’re simple. This one is in the latter category: these are just the two teams that deserve to be here.

2) Spurs vs. Heat
Where Obvious Contrasts Happen
I like to imagine a stunned silence has fallen over the audience at this point, much like when a pitcher has a no-hitter going and no one wants to say anything about it outloud. But you’re all thinking it. “She isn’t going to have it last, is she?” Without specifically mentioning what “it” is (preserving the no-hitter metaphor), I will spoil the ending and say no, I won’t. But unlike everyone else in America (aside from veteran basketball journalists and well-educated fans), I find either possibility involving the San Antonio Spurs much, much, much more interesting than any combination involving the Oklahoma City Thunder. Sorry.

Whereas San Antonio/Boston would be a matchup of the two teams that deserve to be there, San Antonio/Miami would be interesting because it would be a stark contrast between a team that deserves to be there and a team that doesn’t. On the one hand, you have a dynasty that built itself from the ground up and features excellent team defense, nearly flawless fundamentals, and without possibility of argument the best coach in the NBA. (There are maybe three coaches in the entire NBA who aren’t mostly interchangeable with any other halfway decent coach in the league. Gregg Popovich is one of them.) On the other hand, you have a team that walks around like it’s a dynasty even though it’s accomplished absolutely nothing and which assembled itself amid self-generated drama that belongs on reality television more than it belongs in sports. And you’d have an essential ingredient to a great NBA Finals: a natural hero and a natural villain.

Oh, yeah, and there’s the minor detail that these are definitely the two best teams left in the playoffs. So call me crazy, but this interests me more than the matchup everyone else wants to see. Speaking of which…

3) Thunder vs. Heat
Where Ratings Orgy Happens
“LeBron James! Kevin Durant! It’s the NBA Finals on ABC!” Yeah, okay, that’s really not remotely hard to promote, is it? It just doesn’t feel that interesting to me, for all the reasons I’ve already explained in the previous two entries.

4) Thunder vs. Celtics
Where Kendrick Perkins Happens
The obligatory “everyone else around me thinks this would be way more interesting than I do” series. (Admittedly, the previous series almost falls into this cateogry, too.) In this particular case, the disparity is because I live within Boston’s sphere of influence, everyone I know cares about Kendrick Perkins way more than I do. Due to the dearth of other storylines, be prepared to find out how many times per game the announcers can find an excuse to mention Perkins/Robinson-for-Green/Krstic/pick.

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May 21 2012
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Broomtown

When the San Antonio Spurs came out of a first quarter full timeout and scored nine unanswered points in three minutes to force an answering Los Angeles full timeout, I came to the conclusion that this game–and the Vinny Del Negro-Gregg Popovich coaching matchup–was not going to, as they say in boxing, go to the cards.

Admittedly, the game ended up being significantly closer than  I anticipated it being (San Antonio won 102-99), but the series did not. The Spurs are doing something special right now, and the league isn’t doing much to slow them down. Their opponents are now 0-for the playoffs, and if you count regular season 0-for their last 18. The Spurs’ sweep of Utah in the first round was their first playoff sweep since the 2007 NBA Finals (over LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers), and they’re playing beyond inspired basketball right now.

Oklahoma City/Miami might be the sexy matchup, but I’m really all in for San Antonio/Boston at this point.  I’ll also take San Antonio/Miami as long as San Antonio frustrates LeBron by once again proving that a team must be greater than the sum of its parts, and that disciplined, high-effort, fundamentally sound defense absolutely can shut down any superstar. But the idea of San Antonio and Boston’s defenses matching up (especially Duncan vs. Garnett) is just mouthwatering. Plus, it would be a pretty stirring rebuke to Miami’s attempt to build a powerhouse overnight by assembling the most toys. Two teams that are supposed to be “too old,” who owe their success largely to familiarity, continuity, disciplined defense, and getting maximum effort every night? Go ahead and call that “boring.” All you’re doing is proving that you aren’t a basketball fan.

The popular consensus is and always has been and always will be that San Antonio isn’t a very sexy team. Call me crazy, but I find winning pretty sexy.

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May 20 2012
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Removing the Asterisk

The thing about basketball is that we already know who the great teams are about halfway through the regular season. The playoffs don’t even really provide much of a surprise. They’re incurably long, often feature two teams on an obvious collision course, and are just shockingly predictable.

Except when they’re not.

This year, the big story was supposed to be the huge rematch between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls. This story started before we were even entirely sure there was going to be an NBA season. When the Lockout ended, fans quickly flocked back to the sport because of the unparalleled amount of talent on display. Not since the mid-to-late 1990s has the NBA had this kind of concentration of talent, but there was no more compelling available storyline than Derrick Rose vs. LeBron James. And make no mistake: that’s what a rematch between these two teams would be about.

On the one hand, you have arguably the most gifted athlete to ever play the game, but someone who seems to lack the motivation to reach the level of play everyone knows he is capable of. As the icing on the cake, he turned his back on his home town to chase a title in Miami. On the other hand, you have one of the most physically gifted point guards in the NBA, but someone who for the first few years of his career seemed “too nice” to develop that killer instinct you need to be in the top five. But when LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh pulled their stunt in Miami, something remarkable happened: he got angry. And suddenly you have not only a maximum effort player, you have the reigning MVP and one of the deadliest players in the league. Someone who is getting everything he possibly can out of his talents, someone who is fueled with an inner fire the likes of which we’ve rarely seen.

And oh yeah, by the way: playing and winning for his home town is just fine for him, thank you very much.

The waters grew murky during the NBA Lockout of 2011. But it was the way the lockout was resolved that would bring a halt to this collision course. Amid the huge wave of relief from fans and professional observers that we were going to have basketball after all, only a few voices raised in protest for the players’ safety because of the condensed schedule. Although they were drowned out in the “basketball is back!” wave of euphoria, they would promise with chilling significance that injuries were going to happen.

Derrick Rose’s injury problems started during the regular season. Toe, back, groin. He kept trying to get back on the court, and stay on the court. All of these were pretty flukey injuries (as most injuries are in the NBA). But then, the unthinkable happened. In the first game of the playoffs, with the Bulls nursing a late lead, Derrick Rose went up for a jump shot… and came down in a crumpled heap with what would later be revealed to be a torn ACL. And the Bulls’ season never got back up with him.

Immediately, the title was handed to the Miami Heat. Fans, journalists, bloggers… hell, I even handed it to them. Bill Simmons was one of the most prominent sportswriters to advance the popular notion that this would be an “asterisk” NBA title, like the Rockets winning during Jordan’s first retirement. Wow, this seems to keep involving Chicago, doesn’t it? But the point is, Miami was going to win their first title since assembling their super team, and they were going to do it because their main competitor was crippled by the biggest in a series of injuries due to the NBA’s recklessness.

Chris Bosh’s injury (forcing LeBron James to play power forward) may change the narrative by allowing Indiana to complete the upset in the series which is currently tied at two games apiece. There would be some symmetry to this, as injury did rob us of one half of the epic matchup we were promised, but that would hardly remove the asterisk: it would only transfer it from the Heat to whatever team ended up taking their place.

Until suddenly, Gregg Popovich, Tim Duncan, and the San Antonio Spurs came running to the rescue.

The only way to eliminate an “asterisk” is to completely change the narrative. In the past, I have referred to the San Antonio Spurs as the NBA’s “Forgotten Dynasty.” That isn’t entirely accurate. No one has really forgotten Tim Duncan’s Spurs from the 2000s… they just don’t like to talk about them, because there isn’t anything sexy or flashy about them. They play fundamentally sound basketball, their main superstar is humble and genuinely seems like a nice guy. I don’t think he’s ever given an interesting interview or done anything controversial in his life. The brand of basketball they play is only entertaining to people who actually like basketball. Casual fans often refer to them as “boring.”

Well, this “boring” team is tearing through the Western Conference playoffs. They swept the hapless Utah Jazz in the first round by scores of 15, 31, 12, and 6. In the second round, a win tonight would give them a sweep over the much flashier Los Angeles Clippers after three straight victories by margins of 16, 17, and 10.

This dominant performance has some wondering whether this is actually the best Spurs team of the Popovich/Duncan Era, an era that I will remind you was supposed to be winding down. In a sense, this is much like last year’s Dallas Mavericks narrative, except they’ve been here before, and it would help further cement their status as one of the best NBA dynasties of all time.

The way they’re tearing through the playoffs brings this team to a level beyond “impressive,” beyond “dominant.” It’s when we start using words like “scary.” It’s when we realize we’re witnessing something special.

So, yes. We should remember this season because of the rash of playoff injuries, and what it says about the irresponsibility of the NBA’s reckless post-Lockout scheduling. We should remember Derrick Rose, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, and yes even Chris Bosh.

But most of all, we should remember the San Antonio Spurs. Without an asterisk.

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Apr 28 2012
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Asterisk

So there I was, innocently preparing to to make my NBA Playoff predictions without checking any of the scores of the Round 1 games in progress.

And then Twitter exploded.

As soon as I found out Rose was hurt, I broke my media blackout. I had to. Moments like that, being a fan just takes over. I needed to know immediately how bad he was hurt. Of course, that information wasn’t available until a couple hours later… when it was revealed to the horror of every Chicago Bulls fan, and really just people who are enthusiastic about basketball and want to see an entertaining postseason, that Rose had suffered a torn ACL and would miss the remainder of the playoffs and the Olympics.

And, let’s be absolutely frank about this here and now, a torn ACL is not the sort of injury you automatically return from 100% of the player you were before it. In a season plagued by nagging but comparatively minor injuries, fate saved the worst for last. Derrick Rose might never be the same again.

I believe he will, because he is bigger than this. This was a lost season for Rose, but he will be back. The thing is… I’ve been following Chicago sports for quite some time, and this is exactly the sort of thing that happens to us. Does the name Mark Prior ring any bells?

I don’t think that’s happening this time. But you just never know.

Anyway, Rose’s injury (which places an asterix on these playoffs for a lot of people) drew me out of my self-imposed media blackout, so I saw Miami go on a referee-assisted tear against New York. I can’t unsee either of these things, so I’ll fully own the fact that these picks are made with an “unfair advantage.” Fittingly enough, they should probably have an asterisk placed on them.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

Chicago over Philadelphia in 4 Games

Yeah, you heard me. Chicago is absolutely still sweeping the 76ers. Remember: Chicago achieved the best record in the league largely without Derrick Rose, C.J. Watson has been playing unbelievable basketball in his absence (which, unfortunately, probably means he’s leaving town in the not terribly distant future), and this is the same lifeless 76ers squad that almost everyone picked to get swept.

Miami over New York in 5 Games

This should be a much longer series, but New York needs just about everything to go right to have a chance of upsetting Miami, and if Miami keeps getting major assists from the referees this series is already over.

Orlando over Indiana in 7 Games

A lot of things have to go right for the Dwight-less Magic, but can someone explain to me why we’re suddenly buying Indy as a powerhouse? Solidly built team, but I can’t escape the impression that these are two fairly evenly-matched teams, one of whom is vastly more experienced.

Boston over Atlanta in 7 Games

I know, I know. Boston is old, this is the year Atlanta finally figures it out, etc etc etc. Not that it isn’t a cool story, but Kevin Garnett’s resurgence after being moved back to the 5-spot really has everyone buzzing about this team, and justifiably so. This is a gifted team that has won a title and was a Garnett injury away from an unexpected second title, and they really ought not to be written off. (Hold that thought.)

Western Conference Quarterfinals

San Antonio over Utah Jazz in 4 Games

There’s a good chance this isn’t a sweep (even though it ought to be), but I really don’t see any reason San Antonio doesn’t beat Utah every night. Imagine, by the way, all the hype this series would’ve generated if Steve Nash had willed the Suns into the 8-spot. San Antonio being bounced in the first round last year, the Nash/Spurs thing… all of it would’ve been in play.

Oklahoma City over Dallas in 7 Games

“Did she say seven games?” Yes. She said seven games. I’m so not remotely sold on this Oklahoma City team. I understand what everyone sees in them, or wants to see in them, but I still want to see them prove it.

L.A. Lakers over Denver Nuggets in 7 Games

I’m not the first one to comment on this, but remember how pitiful the Lakers/Celtics rivalry looked a few months ago? And now suddenly they’re both showing more than a few signs of life? I’m not saying I think another Lakers/Celtics Finals is likely, I’m just saying we can’t rule it out, and that’s pretty remarkable.

Memphis Grizzlies over L.A. Clippers in 6 Games

If I had bet you a million dollars that the Clippers and Grizzlies were going to meet in a first round playoff series just a few years ago, you would’ve taken the bet regardless of your economic status. So here we are. I have to admit, I expected much bigger things for the Clippers when they appeared more than poised to dethrone the Lakers as the best team in Los Angeles. The Grizzlies are just so talented (Good gods, who ever thought I’d be saying that?), and the Clippers so one-dimensional, I think they’re just going to find themselves smothered by Memphis’s defense.

Eastern Conference Semifinals

Boston over Chicago in 7 Games

Perhaps more than anything, I’m mourning the loss of the series this could’ve been. Chicago/Boston in the 2008-09 Playoffs was quite possibly the best opening round playoff series of all time. Derrick Rose was not the player he is now (though he showed flashes of it), but his duel with Rajon Rondo elevated their rivalry to the same level as Williams/Paul. I was really, really looking forward to that rematch.

Oh, that thought you were holding earlier? Keep holding it.

Miami over Orland in 4 Games

Second-round sweeps aren’t the most common thing in the world, but whether Orlando pulls off the emotional upset without their superstar, or Indiana makes it out of the first round without having any in the first place, the second round is just going to look like a nonstop Miami highlight reel.

Western Conference Semifinals

San Antonio over Memphis in 7 Games
L.A. Lakers over Oklahoma City in 7 Games

You know, I really went back and forth on both of these series and never really felt comfortable no matter which way I picked. Oklahoma City is the “obvious favorite” despite the fact that they haven’t proven they can win at this level, Memphis is the trendy pick, the Lakers have really turned things around but are relying on the always-shaky Bynum and whatever Kobe has left in the tank, and San Antonio is lobbying to have the shot clocks replaced with sun dials so their aging superstars will be more familiar with them.

You know, with the shocking success of San Antonio and the resurgent Celtics and Lakers, we have a compelling, “I’ll show you too old,” storyline developing. Unfortunately, it doesn’t help us much with the, “Who’s going to stop the Heat?” storyline. (Gulp.)

Conference Finals

Miami over Boston in 5 Games

Remember that thought you were holding? (It was, ” This is a gifted team that has won a title and was a Garnett injury away from an unexpected second title, and they really ought not to be written off.”) Add to the mix the, “Who’s going to stop Miami?” storyline I just mentioned, and you’ve got the mix for a potentially epic series. Yes, I obviously don’t have it happening because of Miami’s overwhelming advantages (Rose’s injury destroyed their biggest legitimate competition) , but I would absolutely love it if this became the most recent entry in the LeBron James enigma/soap opera.

San Antonio over L.A. Lakers in 7 Games

The Sundial Series! I love it! Okay, I have to acknowledge the very real possibility that you’re actually going to be seeing Memphis/Oklahoma City in this series, but as long as I’m going with an oddball pick why not take one of the deepest teams in the NBA with one of the best coaches in the NBA? At least I’m familiar with all the elements, since I basically just described the Bulls.

The NBA Finals

Miami over San Antonio in 7 Games

Who’s going to stop Miami? Maybe no one. Maybe Boston. Maybe San Antonio. Maybe the Rose-less Bulls (probably not.) What do these teams have in common? Smothering defense, which was the formula San Antonio used to shut LeBron down entirely in his only Finals appearance with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

These are not the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Without their most natural enemy (Rose) in the mix, I just see all the chips falling Miami’s way this year. I hope I’m wrong, and we spend the offseason asking whether this “Super Team” will ever win a title… I’m just not sure they can be denied with everything they have going for them right now.

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