Tag Archives: LeBron James

Jun 27 2012
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Sports

My ESPY Award Votes

Since 1993, ESPN has hosted the sports world’s equivalent of the Oscars: the ESPY Awards. It has its problems. There have been many years where the nominees (and winners) have been infuriating, and having fans vote for the final winners doesn’t seem like very good selection criteria to me at all, but we have a pretty good candidate pool this year, and since this is the only awards show we get as sports fans, I may as well weigh in.

(Note: I’m skipping the individual sport categories like “Best NBA Athlete” that they don’t show on television anyway.)

Best Male Athlete
LeBron James, Miami Heat, NBA
Two of the other competitors (Aaron Rodgers, Justin Verlander) experienced a similar level of dominance in their respective sports, but were missing one thing: a ring to show for it at the end. I came the closest to voting for Justin Verlander because he won the American League Pitching Triple Crown, Cy Young Award, and MVP Award, but LeBron James won the NBA’s regular season Most Valuable Player and Finals Most Valuable Player awards. But the biggest reason to pick James? It isn’t often that the best player in his sport so dramatically rewrites the narrative of their career in a single season. When we look back on this sports year decades from now, we might not remember the regular season brilliance of Rodgers and Verlander, but we will definitely remember what LeBron James did.

Best Female Athlete
Brittney Griner, Baylor University, NCAA Basketball
Griner was dominant as she led her team to a perfect season and national championship and won pretty much every individual trophy there is to win in NCAA Basketball, making her the easy choice here. (I have to say, I’m a little frustrated that the candidate pool here didn’t include WNBA or NFPS professional athletes.)

Best Championship Performance
LeBron James, Miami Heat, NBA
With all due respect to David Freese of the St. Louis Cardinals for his heroics in the NLCS and World Series, LeBron James took over the Miami Heat and the NBA by finally cashing in on his nearly limitless potential. This is the first time in his career that LeBron has indisputably been not only the most talented player in the NBA, but the best player in the NBA. His performance in the 2012 NBA Playoffs and (especially) 2012 NBA Finals erased any doubt.

Best Breakthrough Athlete
Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots, NFL
Another easy choice. Anthony Davis is going to be the first pick in the NBA draft and Robert Griffin III was the second round pick of the NFL draft, but they haven’t done anything against professional competition. Jeremy Lin was a Twitter sensation, but it’s questionable whether he’s going to continue to be a star with the Knicks if the team can’t play at a high level with him, Carmelo Anthony, and Amar’e Stoudamire on the court together. Gronk’s emergence as one of the best tight ends in football was key to the New England Patriots’ return to the Super Bowl, and there’s no reason to think he’s going to disappear anytime soon.

Best Record-Breaking Performance
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints, NFL
I haven’t exactly hidden my feelings about the New Orleans Saints in light of the Bountygate scandal, and Drew Brees has been embarrassingly vocal in his coach and team’s defense, so you have to believe I would’ve picked anyone else here if I could justify it. But Brees’ breaking Dan Marino’s “unbreakable” single-season passing record is not only one of the most impressive record-breaking performances in recent years, it’s the only actual athletic feat on this list. The other three all deal with age (two career milestones and one “youngest winner” status), which don’t impress me nearly as much.

Best Upset
Los Angeles Kings win the Stanley Cup, NHL
I badly wanted to pick Lehigh over Duke, but can we really count Duke getting bounced in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament as a “huge” upset anymore? Does it really surprise people? It seems to happen more often than not. The Kings, on the other hand, aren’t on this list because of one upset. They’re on this list because of four upsets, in seven-game series, in the playoffs. The entire reason every sport but football has multi-game series in the playoffs is to dramatically increase the odds of the best team winning. So how do you explain the 8th-seeded Los Angeles defeating the Western Conference’s #1, #2, and #3 seeded teams one after another and then hoisting the Stanley Cup? Let’s be honest: this is insane.

Don’t tell me I should vote for one of the two NCAA Tournament upsets (which we have dozens of every year) or the equally obligatory regular season college football upset over this. Just don’t.

Best Game
World Series Game 6, St. Louis Cardinals 10, Texas Rangers 9, MLB
This is easily the best candidate pool on the entire ballot (you can tell because they only bothered picking three games), and quite possibly the best “Best Game” candidate pool you’ll ever see. In addition to a great comeback by Kansas over rival Missouri in the last regular season conference play game the two will ever play, you have two games I recently described (here and here) as being sports-film worthy. The San Francisco 49ers divisional round win over New Orleans was easily one of the best NFL playoff games in years, but Game 6 of the 2011 World Series might well go down as the greatest World Series game of all time.

Best Moment
MLB Regular Season Ends
In a portent of the drama of the World Series, the old Wild Card format went out with a bang by delivering the most dramatic final day of regular season baseball ever. Four games decided two Wild Card races. Three of the four were decided in the ninth inning or extra innings. Two went into extra innings. Two were won by walk-off hits. One featured a seven-run comeback highlighted by A) a grand slam, B) a two-out, two-strike ninth inning game-tying home run, and C) a two-out, two-strike, extra innings walk-off home run. When the dust settled, the two largest regular season collapses (or comebacks, depending on your perspective) in baseball history were complete.

Best Coach/Manager
Tom Coughlin, New York Giants, NFL
Don’t laugh. Who are you going to pick? Erik Soelstra? Consider this: Coughlin has won both of his Super Bowls (two in five years) against Bill Belichick.

Best Comeback Athlete
 Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions, NFL
This was pretty easily the most difficult decision on the ballot. Sidney Crosby missed 10 months due to concussions but came back as the most dominant player in the NHL. (More success in the postseason easily could’ve put this one over the top.) Maria Sharapova came back from a near career-ending injury to win the 2012 French Open (making her only the 10th woman to have at least one career victory in all four Grand Slam events) and regain her ranking as the number one tennis player in the world. Johan Santana came back from Tommy John Surgery to reestablish himself as one of the most dominant pitchers in the game, and pitched the first no-hitter in New York Mets history.

But Matthew Stafford came back from injury-plagued seasons to pass for over 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, and lead the Detroit Lions (yeah, those Detroit Lions) to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. His comeback year was a double-wammy, because it was also a comeback (and breakthrough) year for what had been one of the most maligned franchises in professional sports.

Best Male College Athlete
Anthony Davis, University of Kentucky, NCAA Basketball
Andrew Luck might be the best NFL prospect since Peyton Manning, but Anthony Davis won the Wooden and Naismith Awards as Player of the Year in the regular season as well as the NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player award en route to leading Kentucky to the National Championship.

Best Female College Athlete
Brittney Griner, Baylor University, NCAA Basketball
As already stated, Griner won every individual award there was to win en route to leading her team to a perfect season and national championship.

Best Team
Baylor Women’s Basketball
Was anyone else undefeated? Okay then.

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Jun 22 2012
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Sports

We Were All Witnesses

LeBron James might be the most polarizing athlete alive.

Think about that for a moment. Kobe Bryant and Ben Roethlisberger (two of the highest profile athletes in their respective sports) have been accused of sexual assault. Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds used performance enhancing drugs. Michael Vick ran an illegal dogfighting ring. These are just some of the most high profile examples of athletes with huge public relations nightmares.

LeBron James exercised his right as a free agent to sign a contract with a new team and did so in a manner that was an example of pretty poorly conceived public relations.

That’s it. That’s really what all of this is about. Really. No laws were broken. No NBA rules were broken. No one cheated. No one was harmed.  The competitive integrity of the game wasn’t jeopardized (unless you were a pundit who desperately needed to fill a few minutes.) No one did anything wrong.

Let me repeat that: no one did anything wrong.

Was what LeBron James did a bad idea? If you mean signing with the Miami Heat, absolutely not. I would’ve done the same thing in a heartbeat. If you mean doing it the way he did it, with that one-hour-long announcement on national television, well, do I really need to answer that? Of course it was a bad idea. It was such a bad idea that, when I heard he was having a live special on ESPN, I thought, “Well, he’s definitely going back to Cleveland.” The idea that anyone would go on national television to announce they were leaving one of the longest-suffering fanbases in the country was inconceivable.

Then the backlash started. Jerseys were burned. Death threats were mailed. (Really.)

My reaction was predictable. I started rooting for them. When someone is met with an enormous amount of hostility for transparently stupid reasons, I’m going to tend to end up in their corner. When you’re sending someone death threats because of the game of basketball,  something very serious has gone wrong.

The thing is, basketball doesn’t happen in a vacuum. In the same season, Derrick Rose (more or less confirmed to be motivated by James and Wade spurning Chicago) exploded into one of the best players in the NBA, winning the league MVP Award. On missing out on LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, the Bulls General Manager remarked that they had missed out on two Top 5 players, but they had gained one with Rose’s sudden rise.

Not only that, Rose was a clear contrast to James. He let his game do his talking for him, he shied away from the limelight (actually admitting that it made him uncomfortable), and (and this is the best part) he showed every indication that he was going to stay with his hometown team for a very, very long time. (Yes: his hometown is a big market city and has always surrounded him with an exceptional supporting cast… but I ignored that part. I’ll get into why later.) It was such a great narrative, it was such a clear example of good versus evil, I bought it hook, line, and sinker.

The final straw was what happened in the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals.

The Chicago Bulls blew the Miami Heat out of the building in Game 1, and gave us every reason to believe the entire series was going to look like that. They were just too deep. Miami’s bench wasn’t good enough. Miami was too one-dimensional. We were going to the Finals, and we were going to win. Chicago was back on top.

After that high, Miami swept the next four games in close contests. But the narrative of the series for Chicago fans became Dwayne Wade drawing an absurd amount of fouls and Derrick Rose not being able to buy a call despite being hacked to death. That’s how I’ll always remember the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals. I’m a Bulls fan. It’s how it is.

So, naturally, I did something that is ruinous to objectivity: I got angry.

I honestly don’t know how sportswriters do it. Sports have these allegiances, these narratives. It sucks you in. When I look back at what I said when LeBron James first went to the Heat and faced this outpouring of hate, I realize that I was right back then. My initial reaction was the right one. But when the team you root for gets involved, when emotions get involved, objectivity goes out the window if you’re not careful. How do you maintain interest and passion for sports and not have that happen? More and more, I’ve been appreciating the game itself rather than my own narrow rooting interests, I’ve been able to appreciate stories and performances by teams I had no allegiance to… but I couldn’t stop myself from getting sucked in by the anti-Heat hype.

The 2011 Eastern Conference Finals are when my dislike of the Miami Heat really matured. None of it directed at James, mind you. In casual conversations at work, on Twitter, on Facebook, and elsewhere, I would continue to point out that though the Decision was ill-conceived, Dwayne Wade is the one player on the Heat I truly can’t stand. LeBron James plays with integrity, isn’t afraid to yell at his teammates when they’re being idiots, and all around doesn’t seem like a giant toolbox.

I’ve never really disliked LeBron James. There. I said it.

The thing is… I’m a Bulls fan, and I’m surrounded by Celtics fans. I happen to like the Celtics quite a bit.  (A direct contrast to my opinion of other Boston teams.) I started taking it for granted that the Miami Heat were a team you just had to hate. Then this funny thing happened. Someone who doesn’t follow sports very much asked me what should be a really simple question.

“Why?”

When you’re defending an opinion that is, by its very nature, pretty irrational, “Why?” is a question that throws everything off-balance. You hate the Miami Heat because… they’re the Miami Heat! But as you try to explain why, you realize there’s really no way to say it without sounding silly. “Well, LeBron had this special on TV when he moved, and it was really painfully awkward, and they had this victory party when they didn’t really win anything…”

Oh. That… that doesn’t actually sound like a very big deal when you say it aloud. At this point, you kind of have the choice to either admit you’re being pretty irrational (this is a very difficult option to choose), get defensive, exaggerate so you sound less irrational, or weasel out.

I opted to weasel out. Then I watched the 2012 NBA Playoffs unfold. I knew what was going to happen: LeBron was going to fold. LeBron always folded when it mattered most. He folded against Boston in his final year with the Cavaliers. He folded against Dallas in his first year with the Heat.

He was on the ropes against Indiana, and he torched them when it mattered most. He was on the ropes against Boston, and he torched them when it mattered most. Twice. He was never really on the ropes against Oklahoma City, because he just kept torching them.

Every criticism anyone has ever had of LeBron James? Gone. That near-triple double he always averaged in the regular season and playoffs with the huge asterisk of “until it mattered”? He did it when it mattered. His seeming unwillingness to be the Alpha Dog on a team that included his best friend, Dwayne Wade, one of the few players almost a match for him? He finally decided “almost a match” wasn’t good enough, and took over. His infuriating tendency to turn into a perimeter player in the postseason instead of taking it to the basket? He started taking it to the basket.

He imposed his will on other teams. He played like he was the best player on the court (which he always has been) and knew it (which it really seems like he hasn’t always.)

He did everything we have ever asked, and more. And he put together the kind of complete performances that no one else in the NBA can match. Let me repeat that, because it’s very important: no one else currently in the NBA can do what LeBron James can do.

So here I am, un-weaseling out.

LeBron James might be the most polarizing athlete alive.

LeBron James is an NBA Champion, the reigning regular season Most Valuable Player (for the third time), and the reigning NBA Finals MVP. He is, without possibility of argument, the best active professional basketball player on the planet. If you can’t appreciate what he did in the 2012 NBA Playoffs and the 2012 NBA Finals, you are not a fan of basketball. You don’t have to like him, but you need to appreciate his performance.

We were all witnesses. Finally.

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May 28 2012
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Possible 2012 NBA Finals Matchups

On one of my old blogs, I had a tradition of breaking down the four possible Super Bowl matchups prior to the Conference Championship games. At a reader’s suggestion, I started doing the same for other sports. With the Conference Finals underway in the NBA, it’s time for the inaugural edition of this tradition on this blog!

1) Spurs vs. Celtics
Where Doing It Right Happens
It usually means something when the vast majority of casual fans want one series (hint: not this one), and People Who Know Things want a different one (hint: it’s this one.) Would a Thunder/Heat Finals put three of the best five players on the planet on the floor together? Yep. Would it be a ratings orgy? Definitely. Would it be the best basketball series available?

Nope. Not even close.

The Spurs are a very special basketball team. If you’re confused as to why I think that, Bill Simmons actually does a superb job of explaining it in the last section of this article. A Spurs/Celtics Finals would match up two teams that do things “the right way,” with an emphasis on the team, not on individual talent. Remember: the Celtics were a “Big 3″ super team before the Heat. But they acquired their super team through a pair of shrewd trades, without a self-created media circus. Their identity as a team? Ubuntu, the philosophy Doc Rivers has stressed since day one.

Sometimes there are complicated storylines leading up to the NBA Finals. Sometimes they’re simple. This one is in the latter category: these are just the two teams that deserve to be here.

2) Spurs vs. Heat
Where Obvious Contrasts Happen
I like to imagine a stunned silence has fallen over the audience at this point, much like when a pitcher has a no-hitter going and no one wants to say anything about it outloud. But you’re all thinking it. “She isn’t going to have it last, is she?” Without specifically mentioning what “it” is (preserving the no-hitter metaphor), I will spoil the ending and say no, I won’t. But unlike everyone else in America (aside from veteran basketball journalists and well-educated fans), I find either possibility involving the San Antonio Spurs much, much, much more interesting than any combination involving the Oklahoma City Thunder. Sorry.

Whereas San Antonio/Boston would be a matchup of the two teams that deserve to be there, San Antonio/Miami would be interesting because it would be a stark contrast between a team that deserves to be there and a team that doesn’t. On the one hand, you have a dynasty that built itself from the ground up and features excellent team defense, nearly flawless fundamentals, and without possibility of argument the best coach in the NBA. (There are maybe three coaches in the entire NBA who aren’t mostly interchangeable with any other halfway decent coach in the league. Gregg Popovich is one of them.) On the other hand, you have a team that walks around like it’s a dynasty even though it’s accomplished absolutely nothing and which assembled itself amid self-generated drama that belongs on reality television more than it belongs in sports. And you’d have an essential ingredient to a great NBA Finals: a natural hero and a natural villain.

Oh, yeah, and there’s the minor detail that these are definitely the two best teams left in the playoffs. So call me crazy, but this interests me more than the matchup everyone else wants to see. Speaking of which…

3) Thunder vs. Heat
Where Ratings Orgy Happens
“LeBron James! Kevin Durant! It’s the NBA Finals on ABC!” Yeah, okay, that’s really not remotely hard to promote, is it? It just doesn’t feel that interesting to me, for all the reasons I’ve already explained in the previous two entries.

4) Thunder vs. Celtics
Where Kendrick Perkins Happens
The obligatory “everyone else around me thinks this would be way more interesting than I do” series. (Admittedly, the previous series almost falls into this cateogry, too.) In this particular case, the disparity is because I live within Boston’s sphere of influence, everyone I know cares about Kendrick Perkins way more than I do. Due to the dearth of other storylines, be prepared to find out how many times per game the announcers can find an excuse to mention Perkins/Robinson-for-Green/Krstic/pick.

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May 20 2012
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Removing the Asterisk

The thing about basketball is that we already know who the great teams are about halfway through the regular season. The playoffs don’t even really provide much of a surprise. They’re incurably long, often feature two teams on an obvious collision course, and are just shockingly predictable.

Except when they’re not.

This year, the big story was supposed to be the huge rematch between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls. This story started before we were even entirely sure there was going to be an NBA season. When the Lockout ended, fans quickly flocked back to the sport because of the unparalleled amount of talent on display. Not since the mid-to-late 1990s has the NBA had this kind of concentration of talent, but there was no more compelling available storyline than Derrick Rose vs. LeBron James. And make no mistake: that’s what a rematch between these two teams would be about.

On the one hand, you have arguably the most gifted athlete to ever play the game, but someone who seems to lack the motivation to reach the level of play everyone knows he is capable of. As the icing on the cake, he turned his back on his home town to chase a title in Miami. On the other hand, you have one of the most physically gifted point guards in the NBA, but someone who for the first few years of his career seemed “too nice” to develop that killer instinct you need to be in the top five. But when LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh pulled their stunt in Miami, something remarkable happened: he got angry. And suddenly you have not only a maximum effort player, you have the reigning MVP and one of the deadliest players in the league. Someone who is getting everything he possibly can out of his talents, someone who is fueled with an inner fire the likes of which we’ve rarely seen.

And oh yeah, by the way: playing and winning for his home town is just fine for him, thank you very much.

The waters grew murky during the NBA Lockout of 2011. But it was the way the lockout was resolved that would bring a halt to this collision course. Amid the huge wave of relief from fans and professional observers that we were going to have basketball after all, only a few voices raised in protest for the players’ safety because of the condensed schedule. Although they were drowned out in the “basketball is back!” wave of euphoria, they would promise with chilling significance that injuries were going to happen.

Derrick Rose’s injury problems started during the regular season. Toe, back, groin. He kept trying to get back on the court, and stay on the court. All of these were pretty flukey injuries (as most injuries are in the NBA). But then, the unthinkable happened. In the first game of the playoffs, with the Bulls nursing a late lead, Derrick Rose went up for a jump shot… and came down in a crumpled heap with what would later be revealed to be a torn ACL. And the Bulls’ season never got back up with him.

Immediately, the title was handed to the Miami Heat. Fans, journalists, bloggers… hell, I even handed it to them. Bill Simmons was one of the most prominent sportswriters to advance the popular notion that this would be an “asterisk” NBA title, like the Rockets winning during Jordan’s first retirement. Wow, this seems to keep involving Chicago, doesn’t it? But the point is, Miami was going to win their first title since assembling their super team, and they were going to do it because their main competitor was crippled by the biggest in a series of injuries due to the NBA’s recklessness.

Chris Bosh’s injury (forcing LeBron James to play power forward) may change the narrative by allowing Indiana to complete the upset in the series which is currently tied at two games apiece. There would be some symmetry to this, as injury did rob us of one half of the epic matchup we were promised, but that would hardly remove the asterisk: it would only transfer it from the Heat to whatever team ended up taking their place.

Until suddenly, Gregg Popovich, Tim Duncan, and the San Antonio Spurs came running to the rescue.

The only way to eliminate an “asterisk” is to completely change the narrative. In the past, I have referred to the San Antonio Spurs as the NBA’s “Forgotten Dynasty.” That isn’t entirely accurate. No one has really forgotten Tim Duncan’s Spurs from the 2000s… they just don’t like to talk about them, because there isn’t anything sexy or flashy about them. They play fundamentally sound basketball, their main superstar is humble and genuinely seems like a nice guy. I don’t think he’s ever given an interesting interview or done anything controversial in his life. The brand of basketball they play is only entertaining to people who actually like basketball. Casual fans often refer to them as “boring.”

Well, this “boring” team is tearing through the Western Conference playoffs. They swept the hapless Utah Jazz in the first round by scores of 15, 31, 12, and 6. In the second round, a win tonight would give them a sweep over the much flashier Los Angeles Clippers after three straight victories by margins of 16, 17, and 10.

This dominant performance has some wondering whether this is actually the best Spurs team of the Popovich/Duncan Era, an era that I will remind you was supposed to be winding down. In a sense, this is much like last year’s Dallas Mavericks narrative, except they’ve been here before, and it would help further cement their status as one of the best NBA dynasties of all time.

The way they’re tearing through the playoffs brings this team to a level beyond “impressive,” beyond “dominant.” It’s when we start using words like “scary.” It’s when we realize we’re witnessing something special.

So, yes. We should remember this season because of the rash of playoff injuries, and what it says about the irresponsibility of the NBA’s reckless post-Lockout scheduling. We should remember Derrick Rose, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, and yes even Chris Bosh.

But most of all, we should remember the San Antonio Spurs. Without an asterisk.

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Apr 28 2012
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Asterisk

So there I was, innocently preparing to to make my NBA Playoff predictions without checking any of the scores of the Round 1 games in progress.

And then Twitter exploded.

As soon as I found out Rose was hurt, I broke my media blackout. I had to. Moments like that, being a fan just takes over. I needed to know immediately how bad he was hurt. Of course, that information wasn’t available until a couple hours later… when it was revealed to the horror of every Chicago Bulls fan, and really just people who are enthusiastic about basketball and want to see an entertaining postseason, that Rose had suffered a torn ACL and would miss the remainder of the playoffs and the Olympics.

And, let’s be absolutely frank about this here and now, a torn ACL is not the sort of injury you automatically return from 100% of the player you were before it. In a season plagued by nagging but comparatively minor injuries, fate saved the worst for last. Derrick Rose might never be the same again.

I believe he will, because he is bigger than this. This was a lost season for Rose, but he will be back. The thing is… I’ve been following Chicago sports for quite some time, and this is exactly the sort of thing that happens to us. Does the name Mark Prior ring any bells?

I don’t think that’s happening this time. But you just never know.

Anyway, Rose’s injury (which places an asterix on these playoffs for a lot of people) drew me out of my self-imposed media blackout, so I saw Miami go on a referee-assisted tear against New York. I can’t unsee either of these things, so I’ll fully own the fact that these picks are made with an “unfair advantage.” Fittingly enough, they should probably have an asterisk placed on them.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

Chicago over Philadelphia in 4 Games

Yeah, you heard me. Chicago is absolutely still sweeping the 76ers. Remember: Chicago achieved the best record in the league largely without Derrick Rose, C.J. Watson has been playing unbelievable basketball in his absence (which, unfortunately, probably means he’s leaving town in the not terribly distant future), and this is the same lifeless 76ers squad that almost everyone picked to get swept.

Miami over New York in 5 Games

This should be a much longer series, but New York needs just about everything to go right to have a chance of upsetting Miami, and if Miami keeps getting major assists from the referees this series is already over.

Orlando over Indiana in 7 Games

A lot of things have to go right for the Dwight-less Magic, but can someone explain to me why we’re suddenly buying Indy as a powerhouse? Solidly built team, but I can’t escape the impression that these are two fairly evenly-matched teams, one of whom is vastly more experienced.

Boston over Atlanta in 7 Games

I know, I know. Boston is old, this is the year Atlanta finally figures it out, etc etc etc. Not that it isn’t a cool story, but Kevin Garnett’s resurgence after being moved back to the 5-spot really has everyone buzzing about this team, and justifiably so. This is a gifted team that has won a title and was a Garnett injury away from an unexpected second title, and they really ought not to be written off. (Hold that thought.)

Western Conference Quarterfinals

San Antonio over Utah Jazz in 4 Games

There’s a good chance this isn’t a sweep (even though it ought to be), but I really don’t see any reason San Antonio doesn’t beat Utah every night. Imagine, by the way, all the hype this series would’ve generated if Steve Nash had willed the Suns into the 8-spot. San Antonio being bounced in the first round last year, the Nash/Spurs thing… all of it would’ve been in play.

Oklahoma City over Dallas in 7 Games

“Did she say seven games?” Yes. She said seven games. I’m so not remotely sold on this Oklahoma City team. I understand what everyone sees in them, or wants to see in them, but I still want to see them prove it.

L.A. Lakers over Denver Nuggets in 7 Games

I’m not the first one to comment on this, but remember how pitiful the Lakers/Celtics rivalry looked a few months ago? And now suddenly they’re both showing more than a few signs of life? I’m not saying I think another Lakers/Celtics Finals is likely, I’m just saying we can’t rule it out, and that’s pretty remarkable.

Memphis Grizzlies over L.A. Clippers in 6 Games

If I had bet you a million dollars that the Clippers and Grizzlies were going to meet in a first round playoff series just a few years ago, you would’ve taken the bet regardless of your economic status. So here we are. I have to admit, I expected much bigger things for the Clippers when they appeared more than poised to dethrone the Lakers as the best team in Los Angeles. The Grizzlies are just so talented (Good gods, who ever thought I’d be saying that?), and the Clippers so one-dimensional, I think they’re just going to find themselves smothered by Memphis’s defense.

Eastern Conference Semifinals

Boston over Chicago in 7 Games

Perhaps more than anything, I’m mourning the loss of the series this could’ve been. Chicago/Boston in the 2008-09 Playoffs was quite possibly the best opening round playoff series of all time. Derrick Rose was not the player he is now (though he showed flashes of it), but his duel with Rajon Rondo elevated their rivalry to the same level as Williams/Paul. I was really, really looking forward to that rematch.

Oh, that thought you were holding earlier? Keep holding it.

Miami over Orland in 4 Games

Second-round sweeps aren’t the most common thing in the world, but whether Orlando pulls off the emotional upset without their superstar, or Indiana makes it out of the first round without having any in the first place, the second round is just going to look like a nonstop Miami highlight reel.

Western Conference Semifinals

San Antonio over Memphis in 7 Games
L.A. Lakers over Oklahoma City in 7 Games

You know, I really went back and forth on both of these series and never really felt comfortable no matter which way I picked. Oklahoma City is the “obvious favorite” despite the fact that they haven’t proven they can win at this level, Memphis is the trendy pick, the Lakers have really turned things around but are relying on the always-shaky Bynum and whatever Kobe has left in the tank, and San Antonio is lobbying to have the shot clocks replaced with sun dials so their aging superstars will be more familiar with them.

You know, with the shocking success of San Antonio and the resurgent Celtics and Lakers, we have a compelling, “I’ll show you too old,” storyline developing. Unfortunately, it doesn’t help us much with the, “Who’s going to stop the Heat?” storyline. (Gulp.)

Conference Finals

Miami over Boston in 5 Games

Remember that thought you were holding? (It was, ” This is a gifted team that has won a title and was a Garnett injury away from an unexpected second title, and they really ought not to be written off.”) Add to the mix the, “Who’s going to stop Miami?” storyline I just mentioned, and you’ve got the mix for a potentially epic series. Yes, I obviously don’t have it happening because of Miami’s overwhelming advantages (Rose’s injury destroyed their biggest legitimate competition) , but I would absolutely love it if this became the most recent entry in the LeBron James enigma/soap opera.

San Antonio over L.A. Lakers in 7 Games

The Sundial Series! I love it! Okay, I have to acknowledge the very real possibility that you’re actually going to be seeing Memphis/Oklahoma City in this series, but as long as I’m going with an oddball pick why not take one of the deepest teams in the NBA with one of the best coaches in the NBA? At least I’m familiar with all the elements, since I basically just described the Bulls.

The NBA Finals

Miami over San Antonio in 7 Games

Who’s going to stop Miami? Maybe no one. Maybe Boston. Maybe San Antonio. Maybe the Rose-less Bulls (probably not.) What do these teams have in common? Smothering defense, which was the formula San Antonio used to shut LeBron down entirely in his only Finals appearance with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

These are not the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Without their most natural enemy (Rose) in the mix, I just see all the chips falling Miami’s way this year. I hope I’m wrong, and we spend the offseason asking whether this “Super Team” will ever win a title… I’m just not sure they can be denied with everything they have going for them right now.

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