Category Archives: Sports

Super Bowl XLVII Recap

Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31

Game Balls
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens. 22 of 33 for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Jacoby Jones, WR/KR, Baltimore Ravens. 1 catch for 56 yards and 1 touchdown. 2 punt returns for 28 yards. 5 kickoff returns for 206 yards and 1 touchdown.

There’s nothing I can write about Joe Flacco that hasn’t already been written.

I was originally prepared to give the second game ball to Anquan Boldin since Jones didn’t affect the outcome of the game at all outside of two plays, but since the second game ball should theoretically either go to a player from the losing team in a close matchup or a member of one of the winning team’s other units (in this case, the first game ball goes to an offensive player, so the second should ostensibly go to a defense or special teams player) and one of Jones’s big plays was a kickoff return, there you go.

I could do a detailed postmortem of this game, as there are plenty of really lazy narratives out there being talked about over and over by the media, as there always are. Bill Barnwell of Grantland.com did a much better job of doing that than I could possibly hope to do, so I’m not going to attempt it. I’m just going to recommend you read his article as he continues to be quite possibly the best football writer alive.

There is one specific aspect of the game I do want to analyze, and that’s San Francisco’s last goal-to-go sequence. A lot of people are talking about the defensive holding penalty that wasn’t called on the last pass attempt to Michael Crabtree. Possibly because Jim Harbaugh started that conversation before the game was even over by gesturing at the referees with a wildly exaggerated version of the signal for a holding penalty and visibly screaming, “Holding!” on the sidelines. Possibly.

He has a point. And every 49ers fan who thinks this no-call was decisive also has a point. The thing is, I can’t find it within myself to be outraged about that no-call. I don’t think a single referee in the NFL throws that flag unless he’s over 10,000% sure a penalty occurred. It’s pretty clear from the slow-motion replay that a penalty probably occurred, but in real-time, real-speed, are you really confident enough to make that call?

So, that’s not what I’m upset about. What I’m upset about is that this fourth down play was the third straight pass attempt to Michael Crabtree. Kaepernick was under heavy pressure on all three passing attempts, so he went to his “hot read.” A hot read is the receiver who the quarterback automatically throws to if he doesn’t have time to read the play and find out who’s open. It’s a very important part of any passing play. Since Colin Kaapernick took over at quarterback, Michael Crabtree has been the best receiver on the 49ers, so it probably seems completely reasonable for him to be Kaepernick’s hot read on plays like this.

It’s not.

The fact that Vernon Davis doesn’t appear to have been the hot read on any of those three attempts is not only astonishing, it’s the only thing about the game I’m genuinely angry about. Crabtree is a spectacular athlete, but Vernon Davis might be the best overall athlete in the NFL. More importantly, he has a massive size advantage. His skillset seems much more suited to the situation the 49ers found themselves in than Crabtree’s. Honestly? If I were the 49ers, I would’ve called four straight passing plays and Davis would’ve been the hot read on all four.

It’s okay, though. It’s not like he famously came up with a franchise-altering catch in nearly the exact same situation in last year’s playoffs or anyth–oh.

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Super Bowl XLVII pick

The 49ers and Baltimore Ravens are meeting in the Super Bowl! And you know what that means: the battle-hardened Baltimore defense will take on the flashy San Francisco offense in a clash that–

Wait, no, I’m sorry. Consulting my notes here, it seems it’s actually the 49ers who come in with the overpowering defense and the Ravens that come in with the eye-popping offensive numbers.

What’s interesting is that although the regular season numbers tell us that the Ravens offense and the 49ers defense are actually the two most outstanding units in this game, the playoffs have largely worked to reinforce the more traditional narrative that it’s the Ravens defense and the 49ers offense we ought to be concerned about. Although their divisional round game against Denver was a shootout, their defense manhandled the Indianapolis Colts and, even more impressively, the New England Patriots. They allowed only 13 points against one of the NFL’s premiere offenses, and perhaps more importantly completely shut them out in the second half when they were in desperation mode. The 49ers, on the other hand, enter the Super Bowl riding Colin Kaepernick’s video game-like performance in an offense that looks decidedly more dynamic than it did with Alex Smith at the helm.

I was on record as someone who really wasn’t in love with the decision to go with Kaepernick over Smith. I have since been thoroughly proven wrong, in the postseason no less. And there’s that Very Minor Detail that Jim Harbaugh might be the god of coaching. He was a borderline-elite quarterback in his playing days and now he’s probably the most highly respected coach in the NFL not named Belichick. I’m fairly confident we’re going to have to wait for Peyton Manning’s seemingly inevitable coaching career to see something like this again.

And that’s why I’m picking the 49ers both outright and against the 4-point spread.

Sorry about the lack of drama and all. It’s not that the two teams haven’t looked essentially evenly-matched in the postseason. It’s just that the Ravens’ performance in the regular season actually suggests they’re overachieving in the postseason (which is difficult to sustain), while the 49ers are actually one of those teams for whom regular season success carried right over to postseason success. The “conventional wisdom” is that the 49ers are a less experienced and thus inferior team, but they’ve proven for a longer period of time that they belong here. That seems odd to say when the Baltimore Ravens have been in the Super Bowl conversation more often than not for about a decade, but if I were to advance the argument that the San Francisco 49ers have been the best team in football for the last two years, what exactly would be your killer counterargument?

The easiest (and I would argue laziest) case for the Baltimore Ravens is Kaepernick’s inexperience. Because it’s not like there’s a quarterback currently playing in the NFL who won a Super Bowl in his second year and then proceeded to win two more in the next three years or anything. Oh, wait. That’s okay, though. It wasn’t an eerily similar situation with him replacing a likable veteran quarterback who lost his job due to injury and playing under a head coach who might be a genius–oh. Huh.

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2nd Annual NFL Honors

Tomorrow will mark the NFL’s second annual awards show. It’s actually a pretty fantastic idea to broadcast the presentation of these awards live rather than just posting the winners on NFL.com or releasing them to the press like they did in the past. College football has done the same for a while. I’m honestly a little surprised that this trend hasn’t caught on in other sports.

Anyway, here are my picks for most of tomorrow’s awards. (I’ve skipped a few categories, specifically those that seem to be redundant–what’s the difference between the AP Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year and the Pepsi MAX Rookie of the Year?–and also those that are service/citizenship-related, high school sports-related, etc.)

Play of the Year
Week 6: Robert Griffin III 76-yard TD run
I also gave strong consideration to Adrian Peterson’s (there’s a name you’ll see a lot here) Week 13 82-yard touchdown run and Cam Newton’s Week 14 72-yard touchdown run. Part of what made me go with Griffin’s is the situation. Late fourth quarter, protecting a one-score lead, this basically iced the game.

Coach of the Year
Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers
Pretty much everyone is going to pick Bruce Arians, interim coach of the Indianapolis Colts. They’re making the correct choice according to “conventional football wisdom” (something I honestly can’t stand), but Jim Harbaugh took his team to the NFC Championship in his rookie season and the Super Bowl in his second year. We’ve never seen anything like this.

Comeback Player of the Year
Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
Spoiler alert: I’m afraid this is going to have to be a consolation prize for Manning. But seriously, coming back from missing an entire season of football with everyone crying that you should hang it up because you obviously can’t be the same guy anymore, and pretty easily being the best quarterback in pro football that year? That’s just insane.

Defensive Rookie of the Year
Casey Hayward, CB, Green Bay Packers
6 interceptions? Are you kidding me? And that’s in limited action, too. You can obviously make a great argument for Luke Kuechly, linebacker for the Carolina Panthers, but generating turnovers at that kind of clip is just huge for any team.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins
Clearly this is a three-man race between him and two other quarterbacks: Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks and Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more exciting class of rookie quarterbacks, and if you want to expand it to include other young quarterbacks (like second-year man Colin Kaapernick, for instance?) the NFL’s future is pretty clearly in good hands.

So, why Griffin? His numbers are slightly better, but I would probably make a pretty passionate argument for him even if his numbers were slightly inferior. Why? Because he’s simply the most exciting player in the NFL to watch right now.

Defensive Player of the Year
J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans
Led the league with 20.5 sacks and 16 deflected passes as a 3-4 Defensive End. Kinda wow.

Offensive Player of the Year
Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions
This won’t be a popular pick, but Offensive Player of the Year has always been about eye-popping numbers for me, and there were two transcendent performers this season as far as statistics go: Peterson and Johnson. And while Peterson’s was perhaps the more impressive performance given its context, Johnson actually succeeded at breaking the record he was chasing.

Most Valuable Player
Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Peyton Manning was the best quarterback this year, but Adrian Peterson was very nearly the best running back of all time, falling just nine yards short of the all time record for rushing yards in a season. And if that wasn’t enough, his last run of the regular season was very symbolic of what Peterson meant to the Vikings this year: a 26-yard run that got his team into range for a game-winning field goal that propelled them into the playoffs.

That being said, I have a hunch Peyton Manning is going to win MVP and Adrian Peterson is going to win Offensive Player of the Year. Or vice versa.

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Championship Sunday

It ended up being a moot point, but I realized I missed a possible storyline for a Ravens/Falcons Super Bowl: the “Nobody Believed in Us” Bowl.

So, I find myself surprised to say I’m fairly unambiguously happy that the San Francisco 49ers are going to the Super Bowl. Given what I’ve been talking about for the past few days, and the whole “the most ethical approach to football given what we now know about repetitive head trauma is probably for no one to ever play football again” thing… I’m just not sure what that says about me as a person. I’m not naive, I understand all the problems with football (and professional sports in general), I really can’t give a good answer to “Why do you care?” that doesn’t sound silly to almost anyone else… yet here we are.

Sorry for getting all contemplative. Let’s just talk football for now.

This Round: 1-0-1 (1-1 outright)
Playoffs: 6-3-1 (7-3 outright)

San Francisco 28, Atlanta 24
(I had Atlanta +4, San Francisco outright)

Particularly noteworthy for San Francisco (and, you know, the rest of the NFL) was Vernon Davis’s reemergence. Actually, with how good the 49ers offense has been without arguably the best athlete in professional football, the idea of him being a big force in this offense again should scare the hell out of the rest of the NFL.

Now (spoiler alert), I’m about to name Matt Ryan one of the players of the game. That is hardly uncontroversial given that he was the quarterback for a losing team and turned the ball over twice, but I think it’s worth noting that he put up 300 yards and 3 touchdowns against one of the best passing defenses in football. Furthermore, the interception came when his receiver slipped (after the ball was thrown), and reviewing the tape clearly shows that if the receiver hadn’t slipped the play would’ve gone for a huge gain rather than a turnover. And a bad snap can happen to anyone.

Game Balls
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco. 5 catches for 106 yards and 1 touchdown.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta. 30 of 42 for 396 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Baltimore 28, New England 13
(I had Baltimore +7.5, New England outright)

Bill Belichick’s favorite answer during his postgame interview was “We gave up too many points and didn’t score enough.” To be a bit more precise than New England’s head coach, his team was shut out in the second half. Now that is saying something. The New England Patriots had one of the best offenses in the NFL this year. And they were desperate (if desperation is a thing they ever actually, you know, do). And they got shut out by an aging defense?

Something you probably didn’t expect to see was Tom Brady throwing a game-ending interception. Well, that happened. Not only that, but he was badly outplayed by Joe Flacco. Yeah, you heard me right: Joe Flacco.

What I find truly funny about all of this is that in the preseason I picked the Baltimore Ravens to go to the Super Bowl, largely on the strength of Joe Flacco’s declaration that he was an elite quarterback in the NFL. He was baited into saying it by a truly silly interview question. Sound familiar? And Eli Manning backed up his declaration by beating Tom Brady in the Super Bowl last year. And hey, look what Joe Flacco just did!

Game Balls
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore. 21 of 36 for 240 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Wes Welker, WR, New England. 8 receptions for 117 yards and 1 touchdown.

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“Breaking News”: Rich, Famous Professional Athlete Won’t Face Sexual Assault Charges

From ESPN’s report that the 49ers doubt Michael Crabtree will be charged in the sexual assault investigation:

The team thought the timing of the announcement of the investigation, coming Friday night, was suspicious. The 49ers insist that the events were not a distraction to the team, and it was just another reminder that players can be targets and they have to be careful.

Okay… I’m mad now. The alleged incident took place after the 49ers’ divisional round win over the Green Bay Packers. There is literally no time between then and now that the investigation could’ve started without “the timing” being called “suspicious” by anyone who’s prepared to immediately leap to the defense of a star athlete.

Obviously I don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes, but this really, really feels like a rich famous person being protected from the legal system. Every time we’ve seen a professional athlete under suspicion for something like this, people have immediately started assassinating the character of a possible sexual assault survivor.

I don’t know if that’s what happened here, and I’ll probably never know. I wasn’t there. But I know how the legal system treats survivors of sexual assault even when a professional athlete isn’t involved, so I’m very wary of what might be happening here.

Again, people will accuse me of “leaping to conclusions.” I’m not saying I’m sure this is what happened, but it really feels like it might be what happened, and it’s a pretty logical conclusion to jump to given what we’ve seen in recent years. Speaking of which, recent history has shown me there will be plenty of people leaping to the opposite conclusion. So excuse me for having biases that favor someone who may have been sexually assaulted over someone who has enough money, fame, and protection to make something like that go away whether it happened or not.

Do you remember the last time an active, famous professional athlete was successfully convicted for sexual assault? I don’t. I don’t think it’s happened in my lifetime. Does that seem remotely credible to you? When you consider how many sexual assaults happen in the general population, and consider the culture athletes are raised in? Many (not all, probably not even most, but definitely many) go from high school bullies to fratboys (if you don’t understand what the latter has to do with rape culture, do some reading) to celebrities with everyone around them telling them they’re bulletproof. We hear about convictions involving guns in night clubs, domestic assault, drugs… but never sexual assault? Again, does that seem remotely credible to you? That it just “doesn’t happen”?

Look, I’m not saying he did it. I’m just saying that sexual assault is under the best of circumstances a crime where all of the odds are stacked against the survivor. It’s the only crime where the burden of proof falls entirely on someone who’s going through probably the most traumatic experience of their life, it’s the only crime where your name gets dragged through the mud to make the accused seem more sympathetic. It’s the only crime where even if it’s proven beyond the shadow of a doubt that it happened, there will still be people who say it was your fault. You shouldn’t have been wearing that dress, you shouldn’t have been in that neighborhood. You were asking for it.

So when you take all of that, and you stack it against someone with the money for a team of lawyers, against someone with a team and a league whose best interests involve protecting that person because of what he can do on a football field and him being charged with a crime can create a PR disaster and make a few powerful peoples’ pockets lighter… you’ll have to forgive me for insisting that saying that someone like that not being charged with a crime like this is “breaking news” in the same way that the Pacific Ocean being rather damp is breaking news.

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The Road to Super Bowl XLVII

Last Round
Baltimore 38, Denver 35 (2 OT)
(I had Denver -9)
You really can’t pin the loss on Manning as he gave his team every chance to win, and even turned in what looked like a game-winning drive late in the game. But Joe Flacco made himself several million dollars (remember: this is a contract year) with that game-tying touchdown.

Game Balls
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore. 18-34 for 331 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Trindon Holliday, WR, Denver. 3 kick returns for 158 yards and a touchdown. 3 punt returns for 90 yards and a touchdown.

Green Bay 31, San Francisco 45
(I had Green Bay +3)
I will join the few remaining Alex Smith apologists in admitting that I was absolutely wrong about the Smith/Kaepernick thing. Wow.

Game Balls
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco. 17 of 31 for 263 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. 16 carries for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco. 9 receptions for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Seattle 28, Atlanta 30
(I had Atlanta -2.5)
On the off chance that anyone hasn’t heard about what happened at the end of this game, you need to. At halftime, the Falcons actually led 20-0. They then allowed Seattle to outscore them 28-7 and found themselves trailing 28-27 with 31 seconds left. Matt Ryan then got them 41 yards on 3 plays over the course of 23 seconds to give Matt Bryant the opportunity to kick a 49-yard field goal. Because coach Mike Smith inexplicably left 13 seconds on the clock before that kick, Seattle had 8 seconds left for Russell Wilson, one of this year’s best comeback artists, to engineer a game-winning drive. Wilson’s Hail Mary attempt was intercepted in the end zone by Atlanta wide receiver Julio Jones, who was substituted in on defense in one of the only good decisions Atlanta head coach Mike Smith made all day.

What an absolutely insane ending.

Game Balls
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta. 24 for 35 for 250 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle. 24 of 36 for 385 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. 7 carries for 60 yards and 1 touchdown.

Houston 28, New England 41
(I had New England -9.5)
Honestly? Compared to the other games, there isn’t much worth talking about here.

Game Balls
Tom Brady, QB, New England. 25 of 40 for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Wes Wealker, WR, New England. 8 receptions for 131 yards.

Last Round: 1-3 (2-2 outright)
Playoffs: 5-3 (6-2 outright)

Super Bowl Scenarios
On one of my old blogs, I had a tradition of breaking down the four possible Super Bowl matchups prior to the Conference Championship games. I’ve since started applying this format to the other major American professional sports, but his is where it all started.

1. The Harbaugh Bowl (San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens)
I could just copy/paste my description from last year for the first two entries, since the AFC teams are the same and one of the NFC teams (San Francisco) is as well. The stakes here are obvious. Head coach brothers in the ultimate game of backyard football. (The only way to top this would’ve been a Manning Bowl, since they would’ve been almost equally responsible for their teams’ success or failure and actually on the field.)

On a less happy note, let me just say that in light of the allegations about Michael Crabtree, this game would have another parallel between the two teams, as Ravens star linebacker Ray Lewis was also under suspicion for a major crime before Super Bowl XXXV.

2. The Dynasty Bowl (San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots)
Same stakes as when this was a realistic possibility last year. Brady would be trying to match Joe Montana’s number of Super Bowls won, and standing in his way would be Montana’s old team.

3. The Quarterback Bowl (Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots)
Matt Ryan has been compared to Tom Brady pretty much ever since he was drafted. I have to admit I don’t entirely follow the logic there, but this game doesn’t exactly have a whole lot of other storylines, so there you go.

4. The Bird Bowl (Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens)
As I’ve probably mentioned every time I’ve done this type of column, there always seems to be one game that has basically no storyline. Admittedly, the narrative for Ryan vs. Brady feels pretty forced to me, but at least it’s something. Here? Uh. Both teams are bird mascots. So there’s that.

The Pick
Atlanta +4 over San Francisco (San Francisco outright)
Baltimore +7.5 over New England (New England outright)

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“This Is a Crisis of Confidence.” (or, Sports: Why Do I Care?)

Early this morning I read that San Francisco 49ers star wide receiver Michael Crabtree is under investigation for sexual assault. The alleged incident, as they’re legally required to refer to it in print and digital media, is reported to have occurred in a San Francisco hotel after the 49ers’ divisional playoff win over the Green Bay Packers.

Now, you might be thinking, “Whoa, Kat. What do you mean ‘as they’re legally required to refer to it’? Don’t you believe in due process, and innocent until proven guilty?” The answer, of course, is absolutely, I do. But please forgive me my cynicism when it comes to athletes and sexual assault. Or, really, athletes and the legal system in general. It’s been pretty clear for some time that athletes get special treatment, starting in secondary school, intensifying in college, and reaching truly ridiculous heights in professional sports. Furthermore, given the number of people who will rush to Crabtree’s defense by insinuating the timing of the accusation is suspicious (whilst simultaneously insisting that no one jump to conclusions while they attack the character of Crabtree’s unnamed accuser), perhaps you can forgive me for playing the role of “equal and opposite reaction.”

This is hardly the first time a professional athlete has been accused of sexual assault. And you know what? That’s kind of the point. I’ve known about the more than casual link between professional athletics and sexual assault for some time. It’s really not all that hard to understand.

You grow up with your parents telling you you’re special and better than other kids. You don’t even have to be an athlete to have that experience, but what follows over the next few decades couldn’t possibly do anything but convince you that they’re telling the truth. You’re barely in high school before you have college recruits all over you telling you you’re the next Joe Montana, Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky, etc, and practically begging you to sign with their school. You go pro, you’re making millions of dollars, living in a huge house. Your entire life, people around you have gotten you everything you want, have made anything you don’t want go away…

It’s really no surprise that we’ve seen huge stars (Bryant, Roethlisberger, now Crabtree) accused of this crime. What’s surprising to me is that it doesn’t happen more often. (Please forgive this cynic, but perhaps this has something to do with combining the most underreported crime in America with the hopelessness of going up against a fame machine with expensive legal teams and millions of people who will immediately leap to their defense.) Athletes are taught from an early age that they play by a different set of rules than the rest of us.

I’ve seen it firsthand in college, where my school’s athletic department wielded a ridiculous amount of power despite hardly being one of the nation’s premiere athletic programs. (During my time at that school, we made the transition from NAIA to NCAA Division II.) I personally saw violations of both campus policy and the law just disappear because athletes were involved.

And that’s just talking about one aspect of athletics. Then there’s that… other thing, that athletic institutions are often intensely homophobic. Yes, we’ve seen a lot of positive movement, especially recently. This is no longer an uncomplicated topic where you can just assume “athletic institution = homophobic.” Barriers are being broken down. An accurate picture of the state of queer issues in athletics would definitely require a completely separate article. But let’s just agree that culture is there, and that it isn’t especially surprising.

So, perhaps I’ve demonstrated that I’m hardly naive about the culture of athletics, and that brings me to why I’m writing this. This is far from the most important aspect of the allegations that came to light this morning, but I still have to say it. I’m not sure I have a team to root for to win the Super Bowl this year anymore. The 49ers were the team I was planning on backing, and doing so when one of their star players is under investigation for sexual assault isn’t especially palatable. I have been fortunate that such accusations have been against “the other guy,” against players on teams that I don’t like, even against players that I didn’t especially like in the first place. But, again, that doesn’t mean that I’m blind as to the reality of athletics.

Something about this Michael Crabtree story, as little as we know about it, hit a nerve. Maybe because of the timing, maybe because of everything else going on. Actually, it’s definitely a little of both. You have Lance Armstrong’s confession. (Though, I have never watched a single professional cycling race and I doubt any of the people who have very strong opinions about Lance Armstrong have, either. I just think that’s worth mentioning.) You have the Major League Baseball Hall of Shame acting like widespread steroid use is a bigger deal than institutionalized racism. You have three major labor disputes in the last two years, which seriously consisted of millionaires and billionaires squabbling over money. (For the record, I favored millionaires in all three labor disputes, but the ridiculousness of the situation existing in the first place still makes me intensely angry when I collect my barely-above-minimum-wage paycheck.) All of this happening while the sports media doesn’t talk about anything but some college kid’s personal life. And I find myself sitting here, consumed by a thought I never thought I’d have.

Why do I care?

Seriously. Why is it worth my time to be interested in this? When people have asked me why I’ve cared about sports so much, I’ve always had an easy answer. It’s the beauty of the game. It’s the artistry of human bodies doing things human bodies weren’t intended to do, and the way some of them are just better at it than even others who have chosen the same profession. It’s the little moments and big moments. It’s understanding the flow of the game. It’s the human drama of the thing. It’s seeing a good team and a good crowd feed off of each other. It’s those special games, special plays, special players that you just have to tell people about.

So what?

I’m a democratic socialist. I’m a pacifist. I’m a fierce critic of the gender binary, and of pretty much every source of privilege. So why should someone like me like sports? It doesn’t make sense. Sports often glorifies a culture that represents pretty much everything I criticize in society at large.

A lot of it is that massive paragraph I wrote just now about what I like about sports. All of that is true. Another big part of it is that it’s something a lot of people are interested in. Something that I can know more about than they do. I like being an expert. And you know what? I can’t compare to the people who get paid to do this for a living, but I am an expert compared to almost everyone I know. So it gives me something to talk about, and on top of that it gives people a reason to be impressed by me.

Again, so what? If that really is the reason, the ultimate reason, it’s pretty clear that it really isn’t worth it, right?

I debated whether to write this, and then I debated whether to publish this. Especially since I’m going to publish my conference championship picks tomorrow like nothing happened. But maybe in a few years I won’t be writing about it anymore. Maybe I won’t care anymore.

Then again, maybe I will. Maybe everything I said before–not about liking being regarded as an expert by my peers, but about the beauty of the game, and all that stuff–maybe I’ll realize that that really is worth it. Maybe I’ll be able to reconcile the joy I feel when I see something special happen on the field/court/rink with the disgust I feel when I hear about something that happens off of it.

Thanks for reading.

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2012-13 NFL Playoffs: Round of 8

Wild Card Round Game Balls
Cincinnati 13, Houston 19
(I had Houston -4)
Arian Foster, RB, Houston. 32 carries for 140 yards and 1 touchdown.
Johnathan Joseph, CB, Houston. 5 tackles (all solo), 2 pass deflections, 1 interception returned for 14 yards.

Minnesota 10, Green Bay 24
(I had Green Bay -7.5)
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay. 23 of 33 for 274 yards and 1 touchdown (104.9 passer rating) and 2 carries for 12 yards.
Sam Shields, CB, Green Bay. 7 tackles (5 solo), 2 pass deflections, 1 interception.

Indianapolis 9, Baltimore 24
(I had Baltimore -7)
Anquan Boldin, WR, Baltimore. 5 receptions (targeted 7 times) for 145 yards and 1 touchdown.
Cary Williams, CB, Baltimore. 12 tackles (10 solo), 2 pass deflections, 1 interception returned for 41 yards.

Seattle 24, Washington 14
(I had Seattle -3)
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle. 20 carries for 132 yards and 1 touchdown.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle. 15 of 26 for 187 yards and 1 touchdown. 8 carries for 67 yards.

Divisional Round
 Denver -9 over Baltimore
New England -9.5 over Houston
Nearly identical lines, identical picks, identical reasons. Both of these games already happened in the regular season and were huge blowouts for the favored teams. Furthermore, the New England and Denver offenses are clearly just something special. Offenses like this buzzsaw their way through the playoffs.

These picks are nearly unanimous in most NFL observer circles, and it isn’t hard to understand why. Baltimore and Houston both started off the year strong but declined dramatically as the season went on, whereas New England and Denver clearly separated themselves as the class of the AFC. And like I said last week, this Manning/Brady thing just really feels like destiny.

Atlanta -2.5 over Seattle
Green Bay +3 over San Francisco (and outright)
The NFC is where it gets a lot more tricky. Last week I gave significant mention of the Atlanta/Seattle game as one I “couldn’t wait to flip-flop about [...] approximately a million times when we’re doing it for real.” Now we’re doing it for real, and as you can see I’ve changed my pick.

To be perfectly honest, I think both of these games are too close to call. When games are too close to call it’s never a terrible idea to make your decision based on the quarterback, so in both cases I’ve chosen the more experienced quarterback. That makes me very comfortable with my Green Bay/San Francisco pick where I see a true disparity between Rodgers and Kaepernick.

There are a lot of reasons to have more questions in the case of Atlanta/Seattle. For one, there’s the idea that Matt Ryan is somehow allergic to playoff wins (which history shows is often not a reliable narrative, but is still something on people’s minds). For another, there’s the fact that Russell Wilson has already shown a propensity for leading dramatic game-winning drives.

The “he can’t win in the playoffs” argument just isn’t a very good one. Peyton Manning and Michael Jordan probably have a thing or two to say about making that determination after a few failed tries.

I can very easily see Seattle winning this game, but I just think the narrative is there for Atlanta to finally break through. Really, I can easily see any of the four teams left in the NFC making the Super Bowl, and that’s a pretty good place to be.

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Baseball’s Real Scandal: The Steroids Era vs. the Segregation Era

In failing to elect not only Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, and others suspected or proven to have used performance enhancing drugs, but indeed failing to elect anyone at all, the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame sent a clear statement about the so-called Steroids Era. It has been suggested that no one from the Steroids Era ought to be elected because even if they didn’t use performance enhancing drugs, they allowed it to happen by not speaking up and not doing more to clean up the sport.

Except, you know, that makes absolutely no sense.

I find the suggestion that players committed a grave sin–one that should exclude entire decades of baseball players from the annals of baseball immortality–in failing to speak up or do something about performance enhancing drugs downright insulting considering the players we have let in the Hall of Fame. I could talk about all the ways the rules have changed. I could talk about what pitchers used to be allowed to do to baseballs to make them dance. I could talk about the hypocrisy of a group of journalists punishing players for not speaking up when those same journalists didn’t speak up even though it’s actually their job. But I don’t have to. Because there is a much, much simpler reason I find this attitude so outright distasteful that it makes me feel almost ill every time I hear it.

Punish players for not speaking up about performance enhancing drugs? Okay. As long as you’re ready to throw out every single Hall of Famer that played a single inning before April 15, 1947.

Yeah, you heard me right. Babe Ruth? Gone. Cy Young? Out. Lou Gehrig? See ya.

You think not speaking up about performance enhancing drugs is bad? How about not speaking up about the fact that only caucasians were allowed to play baseball?

Just let that sink in for a moment. Players are being punished not just because they are suspected of using performance enhancing drugs, but because they didn’t speak up about the issue. Because they didn’t “do something” about it. Never mind the fact that it’s actually the job of the Commissioner of Baseball, the Players’ Union, and those same journalists who are now blaming the players for not “doing something”… but you really want to tell me that performance enhancing drugs are a bigger problem for baseball than institutionalized racism? Seriously. Please get some perspective.

There’s been a lot of talk of adding an asterisk to Barry Bonds’ home run record, and that’s fine. I understand the rationale behind it completely. But if we’re going to do that, the first number to have an asterisk next to it should be 714. That’s how many home runs Babe Ruth hit, and he hit them playing exclusively against other white players. He retired 12 years before Jackie Robinson suited up for the Brooklyn Dodgers.

Cy Young had 511 career wins, each and every one of them against all-white teams. Jackie Robinson’s first game would come 36 years after Young’s last. Lou Gehrig’s 2,130 consecutive games played were all played in a white-only league, the last game of the streak coming 8 years before Robinson’s debut. Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak saw him facing only white pitchers, 6 years before Jackie Robinson stepped onto a Major League Baseball field.

So say these players from the Steroids Era were “tainted,” but then look me in the eye and tell me the players you consider the “greatest of all time” weren’t. Better yet, tell Jackie Robinson that. Tell Hank Aaron. Yes, even tell Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa. Tell them that there being nearly a century during which they wouldn’t have been allowed to play ball because of the color of their skin isn’t a bigger deal than widespread use of performance enhancing drugs. And that period of baseball history isn’t something people make a show of being embarrassed about, something they call the Segregation Era. They act like it was some kind of  mythic Golden Age.

I’m not saying I know the “right” way to deal with the steroids issue, but to suggest that an entire generation of ballplayers should be shunned from the Hall of Fame for failing to speak up about steroids when we give a free pass to several generations that didn’t speak up about segregation is, frankly, insulting. And if you agree with the Hall of Fame voters that PEDs are a bigger deal than segregation, I can’t help you.

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2012-13 NFL Playoffs

Last Week: 8-7 (9-6 outright)
Season: 129-121-3 (169-86-1)

—Wild Card Playoffs—

Cincinatti @ Houston
There are two pretty equally simple and compelling arguments for each team. One is that the Texans are severely overrated. They are basically the exact same team that Peyton Manning kept out of the playoffs pretty much every year just by existing. They do the same things. They have the same faces. The only thing that changed is that the aforementioned Peyton Manning isn’t in their division anymore and second best suddenly became best merely by subtraction.

On the other hand, it is pretty commonly accepted that one of the biggest assets in the NFL is continuity. Having the same quarterback, same head coach, same overall system for long enough is usually considered to yield positive results. So what we’re seeing here, as this argument goes, is the fruits of that all-important continuity.

You know what? I’m going to employ an even simpler argument. These are basically the exact same two teams that met in the playoffs last year, with one very key difference: Matt Schaub is under center for Houston instead of some guy named T.J. Yates. And I don’t mean “some guy named” in that cute way sportswriters often mean when they say something like “some guy named Joe Montana” or “some guy named Michael Jordan.” I mean it in its actual, original meaning. In the Texans’ 31-10 victory in last year’s playoffs, their quarterback was a rookie third stringer that most people had never heard of before Week 12 saw Houston’s starting and backup quarterbacks both go down with season-ending injuries.

And, while we’re here, it seems like to right time to remind everyone that the Bengals are still coached by Marvin Lewis. So, yeah. Seeing as we’re looking at basically the exact same matchup only Houston has their starting quarterback (despite Joe Mays’ best efforts), a matchup which Houston won by 21 last time, I’m pretty sure they can win by 5. Houston -4.

Minnesota @ Green Bay
Wait, let me get this straight. Aaron Rodgers is facing Christian Ponder… at Lambeau Field… in the playoffs… and the line is only 7.5?

Yeah, we’re done here. Green Bay -7.5.

Indianapolis @ Baltimore
I can see this game going either way–quite vividly, actually–and both ways make perfect sense. Conventional wisdom says to take the points in that situation, but conventional wisdom also says to be wary of a rookie quarterback in the playoffs.

Andrew Luck’s tendency to turn the ball over is pretty much the only thing he has in common with “normal” rookie quarterbacks, but it’s a weakness that the Baltimore Ravens are extremely well-equipped to exploit.

But Baltimore isn’t exactly the most convincing favorite. If you’re anything like me, you don’t love taking them by a touchdown here.

Like I said, I can see this going either way. So let’s not overthink this and do what we’re supposed to do: bet against a rookie quarterback in the playoffs. Baltimore -7.

Seattle @ Washington
Hey, look! A game where “bet against rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs” won’t help you.

Seattle is clearly the superior team on paper. The problem is, once you actually get on the field RGIII has this way of completely blowing away whatever you had “on paper.” He’s just one of those people you never feel comfortable betting against, but considering everything else Seattle has going for them I’m going to have to. Seattle -3.

—Divisional Playoffs—

While we’re here, I may as well make some predictions about the rest of the playoffs that’ll inevitably end up being wrong. Also, since the NFL reseeds, some of these games may not even happen. So yeah!

New England over Houston
Not as much of a sure thing as you might think, but New England’s offense is downright scary and that Manning/Brady thing really feels like destiny at this point.

Denver over Baltimore
See above.

Green Bay over San Francisco
Wow, there isn’t any history here or anything. (Not that the current teams necessarily care, since absolutely none of them were in the NFL in the 1990s.) I’m not sure if I make this pick if Alex Smith is under center. I probably do, but there’s at least a chance I don’t.

Seattle over Atlanta
I can’t wait to flip-flop about this game approximately a million times when we’re doing it for real.

—Conference Championships—

Denver over New England
There’s a lot at stake here. Conventional wisdom says that Manning doesn’t catch up with Brady even with a win here, but wouldn’t taking this team to a Super Bowl change a lot of people’s minds in a hurry?

Green Bay over Seattle
Love the symmetry here, with Green Bay exacting some cathartic revenge for the “Fail Mary.”

—Super Bowl XLVII—

Denver over Green Bay
Speaking of symmetry, this would be downright eerie. Remember with me if you will a young Brett Favre appearing in his second Super Bowl very early in his career. And remember an aging John Elway outclassing him.

There are some obvious differences. Denver won Super Bowl XXXII largely thanks to a running game anchored by Terrell Davis, Favre and Elway were both gunslingers… but that second one. Not as big of a qualifier as you’d think. Because Favre and Elway had rather similar styles… just like Manning and Rodgers. Every time I see Rodgers shred a defense like a surgeon, it’s hard not to see a lot of Peyton Manning in him.

So there’s your huge parallel. Manning is the master of his craft, Rodgers is the new kid on the block. Elway was even drafted by the Colts (though, unlike Manning, he never suited up for them) and ended up with the Broncos.

Like I said. Eerie.

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