Last Week: 8-8 (10-6 outright)
Season: 25-22-1 (28-21 outright)
I was traveling all week, so I didn’t get to see any games except for the Sunday Night and Monday Night games. Without rehashing what everyone else has already done a fine job of saying, let me just say that I’m pretty amazed how many different times we said, “Well, we’ve finally seen this replacement official thing get completely out of hand,” only to have it escalate even further, reaching its dramatic conclusion during Monday Night Football. Thankfully, we will have the real referees back in this week’s games.
At Baltimore -12 over Cleveland
I wouldn’t lay money on it because Baltimore is coming off of a high-stress Sunday Night game (seriously, that’s just silly scheduling), but Cleveland is awfully weak so I’m not going to get cute here and sweat out the whole game with the points.
New England -4 over At Buffalo
This was a much tougher pick than it should’ve been, but “New England is going to go into Eff You Mode” won over “Buffalo is always surprisingly tough against New England.”
At Detroit -5 over Minnesota
Despite how sneakily not awesome Detroit is, I would’ve been jumping up and down to see this low of a line against Minnesota if it weren’t for the huge upset Minnesota pulled last week. I honestly had no idea they had it in them.
At Atlanta -7 over Carolina
I’m sorry, what? Was all of Vegas drunk during last Thursday’s game? (Oh, right… stupid question.)
San Francisco -4 over At NY Jets
Ah, the classic “overreaction to an upset loss” line. Don’t be fooled.
San Diego +1 over At Kansas City
The Rock is “San Diego is probably a vastly superior team,” the Hard Place is “San Diego on the road in September.” I’ll probably regret this, but I decided not to spend too much time thinking about it.
At Houston -12 over Tennessee
This line is probably a bit too high, but Houston is really starting to look like the AFC’s Super Bowl favorite.
At St. Louis +2.5 over Seattle (Seattle outright)
Two of the biggest beneficiaries of the shoddy replacement officiating face each other in the first week with the real referees back? You can’t make this up. Can we call this the Karma Bowl? I feel like money can be made off of this. Can the Green Bay Packers interrupt the game like it’s a WWE match? That’s pretty much where we’re heading anyway at this point, right?
At Arizona -6.5 over Miami
Legitimately tough pick. Miami has picked up their Good Bad Team status right where they left off last year, while Arizona has been one of the biggest surprises of the season.
At Denver -6.5 over Oakland
Peyton Manning is not losing 3 games in a row. It just doesn’t happen.
Cincinnati -2.5 over At Jacksonville
I’m just going to keep grabbing these low Cincy lines, thank you very much.
At Green Bay -7.5 over New Orleans
Green Bay is going to be in Eff You Mode and New Orleans has been terrible all year. This isn’t going to be pretty.
Washington +3 over At Tampa Bay
I know Tampa Bay is 3-0 against the spread (an underrated stat), but this is also the first game they’ve been favored in.
NY Giants +1.5 over At Philadelphia
So, let’s get this straight. Vick’s struggling, Philadelphia opened the season with a pair of one-point wins and a 27-6 loss, and they’re facing arguably the best road team in the NFL… I’m not the only one who realizes New York should be the favorite in this game… right? Right? Guys?
Chicago +3.5 over At Dallas
A field goal difference that’s entirely due to home field advantage in an era when home field advantage means next to nothing? You shouldn’t have!