Last Week: 10-6 (9-7 outright)
This Week’s Picks
Wow, this is brutal. This coming week has “3-13″ written all over it. All the good teams are playing each other, all the bad teams are playing each other… it’s like the gambling Perfect Storm. Sitting this week out is probably your best bet if you’re betting money.
Chicago +6 over At Green Bay
Yeah, let’s start this thing out with a bang. It seems impossible that Green Bay is going to start the year 0-2, and there are a lot of reasons not to do this… but I have one of those “weird feelings” you only ever get about your own favorite team playing their biggest rivals. And when that happens, you just have to do it.
(Oh, I hope this is obvious, but: don’t follow me down this road if you’re betting money.)
At NY Giants -7.5 over Tampa Bay
New rule: when your stomach goes sour no matter which pick you make, go with the defending champions.
At New England -13.5 over Arizona
This really feels like one of those games where Tom Brady is just absolutely going to eviscerate a weak defense. (Those games are generally games in which Tom Brady faces a weak defense.)
At Indianapolis +1.5 over Minnesota
“… just take the points,” is never somewhere you want to be when the line is 1.5.
At Carolina +2.5 over New Orleans
I would be lying if I said I felt confident about this. Carolina is starting to look like they got a little too much preseason hype (including from me… oops), but New Orleans just let a rookie quarterback put on a clinic and Carolina is vastly more well-coached. You know, sort of like Washington was.
Buffalo -3 over Kansas City
Oakland -2.5 over At Miami
At Cincinnati -7 over Cleveland
… I guess?
Baltimore +2.5 over At Philadelphia
Wait, hang on a second, let me make sure I have this right. Baltimore absolutely steamrolled Cincy while Philadelphia barely beat Cleveland with a last-minute touchdown, right? And Cincinnati is playing Cleveland this week, and favored by a touchdown. Right? That’s what’s going on? Okay, just had to make sure.
Houston -7 over At Jacksonville
Okay, I take it back: don’t sit this week out, just bet on this game (and only this game) 16 times instead of betting on the other 15 games.
Seriously, how is this line so low? Did I miss something? Is Houston down to their fourth-string quarterback again? Wouldn’t this line be too low even if they were?
Dallas -3 over At Seattle
I understand that Seattle is one of the few true “home field advantages” left in the NFL, but… hang on, I need a minute. I can’t believe I’m about to say this. Okay, breathe Kat… it’s okay… you can do this.
Vegas set a Cowboys line too low.
Washington -3 over At St. Louis
The case against this is that St. Louis was competitive against Detroit and that Washington has a rookie quarterback. A rookie quarterback who just beat Drew Brees. Oh, sorry: I forgot we were doing the case against.
The thing is, we’re pretty sure (where we = me) Detroit is at least a little soft. So while a St. Louis resurgence can’t be completely ruled out, I’m not buying into it based on a week 1 win against Detroit that might not mean as much as a lot of people seem to think it does.
NY Jets +6 over At Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh outright)
Pittsburgh is old, and New York is being undervalued because of all their off-the-field drama. That’s really all this is.
At San Diego -6 over Tennessee
If this were a road game there’s no way I take San Diego by 6 over anyone with a pulse in September.
At San Francisco -6.5 over Detroit
I’m pretty sure Detroit is soft and San Francisco looks like a buzzsaw.
Denver +3 over At Atlanta
Absolutely do not bet against Peyton Manning in a nationally televised game at night. It’s the law. (Thank you, Bill Simmons.)